Bruno or Bru-yes?

A brief ramble about the things to consider around Arsenal’s interest in the Brazilian.

At the moment, I am traveling and on vacation (not from writing, clearly, but from the other, less enjoyable responsibilities in my life). So this is going to be shorter than usual. But I wanted to take a second and speculate in the hope of saying something profound about Arsenal’s sudden reported interest in Newcastle’s Bruno Guimarães.

According to the sources I trust — namely, David Ornstein, Sami Mokbel, and HandOfArsenal — the Gunners have made an informal approach to sign the Magpie’s midfield centerpiece. Specifically, Andrea Berta reportedly reached out to Guimarães’ camp through Kia Joorabshian (a name I frankly hoped to never hear associated with Arsenal again) to feel out the feasibility of such a deal. That unfortunate middleman then floated the prospect of a deal worth about £55 million to Newcastle, who have claimed the Brazilian is not for sale. However, there has been no official contact between the two clubs.

Now, I’ll come clean. I’m not the biggest fan of ol’ Bruno G. He has rattled me quite regularly over the years, from the weird jabs at Arsenal to him driving an elbow into Jorginho’s head and everything in between. He is, frankly, a bit of a prick.

On top of that, I don’t love Guimarães defensively. According to FotMob, he ranks in the 45th percentile for defensive contributions compared to other midfielders. I think he gets burned very easily on the counter and, as we all know, is prone to giving up a foul or three. He may have gotten away with “orange card” fouls up until now in the English top flight, but doing that with a cannon on your chest is a different proposition entirely. And as much as I’m loathe to lose our record of not giving up any penalties or receiving any red cards in the Premier League from last season, I’m more concerned about the effects that lack of discipline could precipitate for Arsenal. This squad is under enough strain as it is without having to cover for suspended teammates.

Lastly, the Newcastle man will turn 29 during the 2026/27 season. Guimarães will demand a contract that guarantees the largest salary of his career and keeps him on the payroll well into his 30s. This is not a player the Gunners will recoup any value for should things go south for him in north London.

But if I’m still being honest (and I’m pretty sure that I am), those are rather small qualms to have. The fact is, Guimarães is a great player. His progressive passing range is phenomenal, among the best in England. He breaks lines constantly, creates chances at a very impressive clip, and is even quite capable at carrying the ball as well. Just the other day, we saw all of this for our own eyes as the Brazilian created two goals against Scotland in the World Cup.

The stats back that up. On a per-90 basis in the Premier League last season, Guimarães ranked in the 96th percentile for goals, xG, and shots on target. He placed in the 94th percentile for non-penalty xG, the 86th percentile for chances created, the 85th percentile for shots, the 84th percentile for assists, and the 79th percentile for big chances created.

Aside from that, he is very tenacious off the ball, dedicated to getting stuck in his duels. FotMob ranks him very highly in defensive contributions, tackles, recoveries, clean sheets, and goals conceded when on the pitch. Where Guimarães falls short is in interceptions, the frequency with which he is dribbled past, fouls conceded, and red cards earned. The last two are fairly evident, of course.

But all things considered, he is a talent that deserves to play at a more ambitious club.

Perhaps therein lies the glimmer of hope. Again, Guimarães is now within the final years of his footballing prime. But Newcastle appear directionless at the moment, having finished 12th in the Premier League last season and with their final appearance in Europe for the next year or so involving Barcelona handing them a rather humiliating defeat in the Champions League. You could understand a player of his ability desiring a move to a more competitive club.

Arsenal obviously can offer that right now. The English champions look like a side capable of achieving a period of dominance, and even a potential dynasty in the Premier League. Mikel Arteta’s is certainly one of the most attractive projects in football at the moment. Why wouldn’t a player like Guimarães, who’s probably desperate to add some major silverware to his legacy, be enticed by the chance to join the Gunners?

I tend to think that’s why Arsenal are readying a second approach, as reported by several journalists a couple days ago. Personally, I just don’t see the club, particular with a recruitment apparatus headed by Andrea Berta, wasting precious time attempting to lure away a player who is indeed unavailable. Arsenal must be receiving some sort of encouragement to make them think a deal is possible here. For the reasons outlined above, it seems more likely that encouragement is coming from Guimarães’ camp than from Newcastle.

There is another aspect of this situation that makes it an opportunity in Berta’s eyes. Guimarães’ teammate Sandro Tonali has been the subject of intense transfer speculation all summer. At the time of writing, Spurs sound likely to acquire his services for an eye-watering fee approaching £100 million. Newcastle certainly wouldn’t want to lose two key midfielders this summer. Arsenal’s approach for the older player, with only two years left on his deal compared to three for Tonali, clearly asks a specific question: which of them would you rather sell?

This sudden run at Guimarães also suggests a couple things to me about Arsenal’s thinking right now.

To my mind, Arsenal don’t seem entirely convinced by the midfielders on the market right now. They’ve been linked with several of them sure, but those reports don’t currently indicate much more than a passing interest. And I think that’s understandable, based on the prices we’ve seen.

Sandro Tonali, the Newcastle midfielder the Gunners initially looked set to chase, might now cost Spurs up to £100 million. Alex Scott, whom Bournemouth have sworn is not for sale, is reportedly valued at around £60-65 million. Mateus Fernandes seemingly commands a fee of £85 million despite West Ham having suffered relegation. Ayyoub Bouaddi, rated at approximately €70 million by Lille, will surely see his asking price climb in the wake of an impressive World Cup campaign with Morocco so far. ___ Anderson’s imminent switch to Manchester City for £130 million (or £116 million if you choose to believe City’s side of the story) should only serve to exacerbate an almost extortionate transfer landscape.

Guimarães then represents a potentially cost-effective option for Arsenal; instead of paying well over the odds for a player who isn’t a seamless fit or will need time to become an important player for the Gunners, they could secure a more refined, albeit older, player for a lower price. Why spend nine figures on a midfielder with plenty of development ahead of them when you could have a ready-made one for almost half the price? Especially considering the likely expenditure that upgrading in attack will require (and the stars on the market whom Arsenal could potentially land), targeting the Brazilian makes plenty of financial sense. It’s exactly the kind of shrewd maneuvering we’ve already seen repeatedly from Berta in just over a year in the job.

And it’s easy to see how Guimarães would fit into the team. Paired with Rice, the two would form perhaps a more complete double pivot in terms of ball progression capability than we’ve seen from Rice and Martín Zubimendi. The Englishman would provide the defensive cover you’d expect from the best six in the world — which he is — while Guimarães would in theory pull the strings in possession, moving the ball up the pitch and through the lines in a way Arsenal could have used last season. That in turn would allow the likes of Eberechi Eze and perhaps Morgan Rogers to play as a true ten, in central zones where they are most effective. I do have to wonder, however, what signing Guimarães and Rogers would mean for Martin Ødegaard.

Arsenal’s pursuit of Guimarães also suggests to me that the club plan to get a little creative with how they address their contingency strategy for Rice. I may expand on this in a separate piece, but a major priority for the Gunners this summer should be to ensure that the squad contains viable alternatives to their most crucial players. Arsenal’s record signing is of course one of those players.

However, there exist maybe only two or three players on the planet who can adequately deputize for the Englishman on their own, and none will be available to Arsenal this summer. This means that replacing Rice if he’s unavailable will most likely be a two-man job. I’ve seen many treat Guimarães as potentially a direct backup but I think he’d actually be part of a pair, lending a hand to either Zubimendi or Myles Lewis-Skelly on and off the ball in the event Rice can’t play. I also believe the combined traits of Lewis-Skelly and Zubimendi can plug a Rice-sized hole in the team, at least for a little while. But the signing of Guimarães would essentially allow Arsenal to get by without the main man in midfield without sacrificing progressive passing.

Ultimately, I think signing Guimarães makes a lot of sense for the Gunners. Sure, he’s a bit of a bastard on the pitch, but that tends to be a player you want on your team. And contrary to that on-field persona, the Brazilian appears to be quite a likable and respected figure behind the scenes. More importantly, however, is his elite passing skill set. Arsenal have quite clearly lacked an unflappable distributor of the ball from the base of midfield for quite some time now. Guimarães would come in as a “win now” signing, ready to hit the ground running and motivated to win some trophies. Again, while you should never expect a signing to be a sure thing, the Newcastle man represents the removal of several layers of risk. I’m not sure the same can be said of the other midfield options on the market right now.

In conclusion, this would be a savvy acquisition should Arsenal be able to pull it off for a reasonable price. For me, that would come out to be around £70 million. Remember, part of the appeal here is being able to reserve enough transfer funds to really make a splash in attacking areas. Sure, he would probably earn a red card or two during his time in north London. But should Berta be able to convince Newcastle to part with Guimarães in that context, I would happily set aside my personal beef with the Brazilian. Because even I can admit that he would elevate this Arsenal team, one that I need not remind you are the reigning Premier League champions. And you can’t turn your nose up at that.

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