RANKED: The Four Reasons Why Arsenal Didn’t Win the Premier League

A deep dive into the most significant factors behind the Gunners losing out on the league title in the 2024/25 season.

Sunday was a pretty significant day for me — it was my and my wife’s first wedding anniversary. We had some celebratory coffee and pastries, exchanged small gifts (it completely slipped my mind that the first anniversary gift is supposed to be made of paper, but she was a big fan of the mint-scented candle I bought her), and eventually meandered toward a dinner I’d reserved at an upscale Mexican restaurant on the Hill. There we indulged in perhaps the best tacos al pastor I’ve ever had, some very unique steak tartare, a bluefin tuna tostada, and some absolutely decadent lamb neck barbacoa. We played this fun little card game she bought while munching on bunuelos and sipping on iced horchata lattes, before paying the bill and going on a nice walk around the area as the sun set. It was a very lovely day.

Unfortunately, Sunday was significant for another reason. If you are laying eyes on this article, that means it’s been published by me, and that means Liverpool have officially clinched the Premier League title. And that probably means Liverpool supporters have about 36 hours before they start feeling empty inside again and try to fill the voids in their souls by threatening copyright litigation against Arsenal fans for repurposing a chant that the champions’ club faithful repurposed themselves, that is originally derived from “Bella Ciao”, a 19th-century song that is considered public domain (this is actually a thing that happened on Twitter last week).

Once more, Arsenal have finished second in the Premier League. But how did we get here? How did Arsenal, after the fall of Rodri seemingly made Mikel Arteta’s men favorites to hoist the Premier League trophy, end up losing a third consecutive title race?

Seemingly contrary to popular belief, there is no singular factor that caused this outcome. Instead, I believe there’s multiple reasons for this — four, to be exact. Some are more prominent causes than others, some are more in the club’s control than the rest. Below, I have ranked these factors, from least to most effect on Arsenal’s place in the table this season.

4) Arsenal made crucial mistakes in their recruitment of offensive talent.

Entering the new season, it was pretty clear that Arsenal needed a bit of help in attack. Although they scored 91 goals in the league during the 2023/24 campaign, breaking the scoring record they had set the previous year, it has long been the case that the Gunners lack game-changing forwards outside of Bukayo Saka. The fact is, Arsenal rarely take all the points from matches in which they don’t deserve to; they don’t scam wins through moments of magic.

In particular, the consensus has been that the team are short a striker and a wide forward — preferably one that operates on the left flank. Down the middle, Kai Havertz has actually been quite productive but he is often not clinical enough in front of goal. Gabriel Martinelli has recently returned to very good form, but there isn’t enough variety in his game at times, making his ceiling uncertain. Gabriel Jesus can operate across the front line, but he also isn’t efficient in front of goal and has been regularly hampered by injuries for the last few seasons. Leandro Trossard serves as a left winger and emergency center forward option, but he’s approaching the age cliff and is already a bit limited athletically, lacking elite pace or strength.

Entering the 2024 summer window, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who didn’t believe Arsenal needed to leave the transfer market with a new center forward. The club itself seemed to know that as well, based on their reported targets. The summer began with Arsenal linked to Ivan Toney, but the divisive Brentford man was left to move to Saudi Arabia. They were constantly linked throughout the summer to Newcastle United striker Alexander Isak, who appeared to be the Gunners’ first choice in the position. Another link was to Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, but it never amounted to any concrete approach. They also spent the offseason courting RB Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko, but failed to land the Slovenian after reportedly declining to promise him a starting berth over Havertz in the team.

Arsenal also wanted a winger, with their top priority being Nico Williams of Athletic Bilbao. However, the Spanish phenom reportedly had rather unworkable wage demands and was rumored to have his heart set on Barcelona at the time. The Gunners also supposedly held interest in Leroy Sane, Raphinha, and Rodrygo, but no move materialized there either. Desire Doue was a more attainable player Arsenal monitored, but they didn’t make a formal approach and the young Frenchman was snapped by PSG.

Outside of a striker and winger, Arsenal arguably had another need they should have addressed last summer: a creative midfielder. In the squad, Martin Ødegaard stood out as the only playmaker profile. Emile Smith Rowe had been sold to Fulham, Fabio Vieira was loaned to Porto, and Ethan Nwaneri was not yet ready to contribute on a full-time basis. And yet, the Gunners stood by and watched as traditional attacking midfielders like Doue and Michael Olise changed clubs and didn’t move for the likes of Xavi Simons, Eberechi Eze, and Morgan Gibbs-White despite those players being on the table.

In the end, Arsenal brought in Mikel Merino from Real Sociedad, who has been a good two-way eight and an even better emergency center forward, but is more of a second striker than a creative pocket passer. They signed Raheem Sterling on loan in the dying minutes of the window, and the Englishman has proven a monumental flop. They did not bring in a new striker.

Entering the January window, Arsenal had lost Saka for months to a hamstring tear. 12 days into the new year, Jesus suffered an ACL rupture that ended his season. Those injuries, combined with Havertz being clearly on his last legs, made it imperative for the Gunners to go into the market and get a forward. Knowing this, Aston Villa approached Arsenal about a potential transfer for Ollie Watkins. The Birmingham club offered Watkins, one of the best strikers in the Premier League over the last few seasons, for a price of £60 million. After dallying for over a week, Arsenal countered with a bid of £40 million, which was unceremoniously rejected before Villa sold Jhon Duran to Al Nassr. Villa would also acquire Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford on loan. The Gunners would choose to keep their powder dry, a decision that verged on negligence considering the handful of impactful players that were available that month. Havertz went down with a season-ending hamstring injury eight days after the window slammed shut. Martinelli would also miss a month with a hamstring issue.

Arteta worked wonders with Merino’s emergence as a genuinely effective center forward to keep the team afloat in the title race for a while (as well as to continue their challenge in the Champions League). But they have still lacked those game-winning moments on days when the Gunners don’t play well. They have continued to struggle against low- and mid-blocks, with no player outside of Odegaard who can reliably pick that kind of lock from a central position. And the captain has not looked himself at all since returning from an ankle injury he suffered early in the season.

As a result, Arsenal have scored only 47 goals from open play (in this case, meaning goals from settled open play, counterattacks, and own goals) in the league at the time of writing. Liverpool currently have 60, while Manchester City sit at 57. Of their 13 draws so far in the English top flight this season, nine have occurred in matches in which Arsenal were ahead, demonstrating an inability to capitalize in positive game states and add to leads. According to FBref, Arsenal currently sport the 7th-highest xG in the league, behind Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, and even Bournemouth.

By no means has the Gunners’ attack been terrible. But, along with injuries to key attackers and creative players as well as a sometimes rote, unimaginative style of play in the final third, the club’s inability to sign more difference makers in that area of the pitch has come back to haunt them. Poorly papering over the cracks with a past-it Sterling, and then turning down a golden opportunity to bolster Arsenal’s decimated offense at a time when all four competitions were still in play, contributed significantly to the Gunners simply not having the firepower to keep picking up points and challenging Liverpool down the stretch.

3) Liverpool were genuinely great, albeit a little lucky as well.

Speaking of which, let’s talk about Arne Slot’s side briefly. And maybe that’s the best place to start — this wasn’t Slot’s side, not really. The Dutchman arrived from Feyenoord and took charge of a roster that been constructed over the last nine years by Jurgen Klopp before his departure for Red Bull’s boardroom. That roster currently contains multiple players that have an extremely legitimate claim to a spot in the Premier League’s all-time XI, including Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk, and Mohamed Salah.

It’s also a team that took up the good fight against the Manchester City dynasty before Arsenal could. For years, they put up immensely respectable campaigns in the English top flight, registering over 90 points on multiple occasions only for Pep Guardiola’s men to outdo them and lift the Premier League trophy once more. They did steamroll their way to a title in the COVID season of 2019/20, but that was their only league triumph in the Klopp era.

In the grand scheme of things, that group of Liverpool players certainly deserved a second league title. Again, several of those footballers will go down as first-ballot Hall of Famers, as some of the greatest legends to ever grace the Premier League. Sure, Slot came in this season and turned the dial down on the rock-and-roll, gegenpress-heavy style Klopp employed and instilled more defensive solidity while maintaining most of their offensive efficacy. But I think this title is really a culmination of a Liverpool project that has spanned almost a decade. A group of experienced, historic players smelled blood in the water after City and Arsenal got hit by injury crises and pounced in the hopes of leaving with one more title.

The piece of this build that really dragged Liverpool over the line is Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian has put together perhaps the greatest Premier League season of all time, currently sitting on 28 goals and 18 assists after 34 games. He has 56 goal contributions in all competitions at the time of writing. That means that in the Premier League, Salah has played a role in just under 60% of the goals Liverpool have scored in that competition. The next highest contributor in the Reds’ roster is Luis Diaz with 16.

Salah’s herculean effort, as well as moments of magic from Alexander-Arnold and Alexis Mac Allister, and high-level defensive performances from Alisson, van Dijk, and Ibrahima Konate tell most of the story. But not all of it. Every title-winning side needs a little luck along the way. Liverpool, I think it’s fair to say, had a sizeable amount of assistance from Lady Luck.

Firstly, Liverpool have been pretty fortunate this season when it comes to injuries. In a season that bleeds into the last because of various continental tournaments that took place over the summer, Arsenal, Brighton, Spurs, and Villa have led the way in terms of number of fitness-related absences. Both Manchester clubs have also been forced to deal with an onslaught of injuries. However, the soon-to-be champions were in the middle of the pack in that regard. Alisson missed some time, as did Alexander-Arnold, Konate and various squad players. But none of those players were out for too long and their biggest contributors, especially Salah, were perpetually available for the entirety of the season.

On top of that, I think Liverpool have received quite a bit of grace from officials throughout this campaign. Most indicative of this is the fact that at the time of writing, Liverpool have received nine penalties in the league. The next highest is Bournemouth with seven. Arsenal, however, have only received two. Additionally, they have had smaller but still pivotal decisions go in their favor, ranging from fouls in their box that would earn other teams a penalty called against them to rather generous determinations of fouls in the buildup to goals Liverpool have conceded. Over time, this good fortune has proven part of the difference.

2) The Gunners suffered horrific refereeing decisions throughout the season.

In contrast, Arsenal have been punished to the extreme by referees at every opportunity. Throughout the 2024/25 campaign, Premier League referees repeatedly determined the outcome of matches to the Gunners’ detriment seemingly on a whim, applying rarely-enforced rules before retiring them once more, making inconsistent calls, or practically inventing rules entirely. The first such instance occurred when Arsenal hosted Brighton at the end of August. After going ahead late in the first half, Declan Rice was shown a second yellow for, drum roll please, kicking a ball away.

Overeager apologists will tell you that Rice purposefully prevented Joel Veltman from restarting play after the Englishman fouled him. But a simple rewatch of that moment will show the visiting Dutchman rolling the ball into Rice’s ankle and the Arsenal man tapping it away. Either Veltman wanted to kick the ball as it was still rolling or he wanted to let an opponent’s foot determine where he took his free kick from. The first isn’t legal and the second isn’t unlikely. At least, that’s normally the case; referee Chris Kavanagh marched over, audibly said, “I have no choice!” and gave Rice his marching orders.

The irony is, Kavanagh didn’t seem to feel that he had no choice to card Danny Welbeck, who stood right next to him and yelled, “That’s a second yellow card!” — a yellow card offense itself. He didn’t feel that way on the countless occasions since this incident when a similar one occurred on his watch. And he didn’t feel that way when far more serious fouls endangered the well-being of players he was overseeing. Only when one of Arsenal’s most important players directed a ball a few feet away out of habit was it a case of having no choice. Down to ten men, the Gunners quickly conceded an equalizer and the match ended 1-1, with the home team facing an away trip to Spurs without their record signing.

Only a few weeks later, Arsenal suffered a similar fate yet again. Away at City, Arteta’s men had come from behind to take the lead in first half stoppage time. Even deeper into that stoppage time, Michael Oliver (who has previously engaged in a conflict of interest linking him to City’s ownership, it must be said) showed Leandro Trossard a second yellow for kicking the ball away about a second after Oliver blew his whistle for a foul by the Belgian. Arsenal spent the entirety of the second half defending with ten men, eventually conceding a John Stones equalizer eight minutes into stoppage time. Erling Haaland would celebrate by tossing a ball at the back of Gabriel’s head and engaging in a variety of unsportsmanlike behavior with multiple Arsenal players and Arteta, but that of course went unpunished.

The next refereeing incident that unnecessarily cost Arsenal points occurred at Bournemouth in October. After an errant pass by Trossard back toward his own goal, William Saliba was forced into an awkward duel with Evanilson and eventually brought down the forward. Despite the foul being initially given as a yellow card offense, VAR intervened and upgraded it to a sending off. Bournemouth went on to win 2-0 against the visitors.

This is perhaps the most arguable of the lot, as in a vacuum, what Saliba did definitely could be immediately construed as denial of a goalscoring opportunity (DOGSO), and therefore worthy of a red card. But I have one main issue with the call here. First, VAR’s change of the original call was supposedly based on the “clear and obvious error” standard, but given the calls VAR has rubber-stamped this season, the meaning of that guiding principle — which I’ve always felt was purposefully vague — has not interpreted consistently by the PGMOL. On another day, VAR officials probably would have nodded their head in agreement and let the match continue. And although there are differences in circumstances, Tosin Adarabioyo and Micky van de Ven committed very similar fouls and only saw cautions.

Next up was Arsenal’s trip to Brighton, where Fabian Hurzeler’s men completed a double of strange, game-altering decisions against Arsenal. Saliba was once again the victim here. The Gunners once more went up against the Seagulls, this time via an Ethan Nwaneri strike early on in the match. Fifteen minutes into the second half, Anthony Taylor gave a penalty for the home team when Saliba mistimed a header and ended up bumping his head against Joao Pedro’s. The forward immediately launched into histrionics and threw himself to the ground, convincing Taylor to give the spot kick (even though replays showed that the ball deflected off Saliba’s head) from which Pedro equalized. Just like the first time, the encounter ended 1-1. Refereeing experts like Dermot Gallagher and Dale Johnson rushed to explain how the penalty was justified despite Saliba getting his head to the ball because, and yes they seriously said this, “the ball hit Saliba” and Saliba did not intentionally make contact with the ball.

Although it fortunately didn’t result in dropped points, I do think it’s pertinent to talk about Michael Oliver’s grossly baffling dismissal of Myles Lewis-Skelly at Wolves in late January. Ever since his celebration after scoring against City, the Hale End product has been targeted by the English media, which eventually translated to disparate treatment on the pitch (you can see my full thoughts on this phenomenon here). Oliver immediately showing Lewis-Skelly a red card for a very typical cynical foul outside of Wolves’ penalty area was the first instance of this. Riccardo Calafiori would score the winner for 10-man Arsenal and the red card would be overturned, but in a way the damage was already done. The PGMOL closed ranks around Oliver and refused to admit any wrongdoing, even releasing a statement solely meant to garner sympathy for the official. In the meantime, English media bemoaned the idea of seeking accountability from referees and scrambled to paint Lewis-Skelly as the villain of the drama, while eager rival fans lapped it up.

I think the penalty called against Arsenal at Everton earlier this month was another manifestation of this. The Gunners once again went ahead in the first half before in the second half Darren England, perhaps the worst referee currently gracing the English top flight, gave a penalty against the visitors (sensing a pattern here yet?). The reason? Lewis-Skelly and Jack Harrison tussled for the ball before both players fell to the ground. In hindsight, one wouldn’t be blamed for thinking Harrison shoved Lewis-Skelly over. But England gave the penalty, which Iliman Ndiaye converted, and the match finished 1-1.

In total, you could argue that shoddy officiating has cost Arsenal up to 11 points. That is a sizeable fraction of the total number of points available in a Premier League campaign. And that’s not even taking into account moments like when Wolves’ Yerson Mosquera choked Havertz on the opening day of the season, van Dijk repeatedly drove his studs into Havertz’s shin off the ball, or Matt O’Riley brought down Gabriel in the box during a corner at Brighton. These are, in my opinion, pretty clear calls that could have changed matches in Arsenal’s favor, but referees refrained from making them. Considering the minimal margin for error in most title races, losing that amount of points through unnecessary refereeing decisions is crushing. Whether they were due to a subconscious bias toward Arsenal given where in England most PGMOL officials are from, a response to Arteta’s “desgracia” comments that avoided FA misconduct charges last season, or a need to be part of the story of matches instilled by Howard Webb, these calls unfortunately played a massive role in how Arsenal’s domestic season has panned out.

Sure, the Gunners must take some responsibility here; perhaps in some of these matches, they should have extended their lead so that a penalty here or a red card there wouldn’t be detrimental. But Liverpool so far have 11 one-goal wins in the league. It doesn’t feel like Arsenal were afforded the same courtesy.

1) A slew of key injuries consistently hampered the team.

Ultimately, the biggest reason why Arsenal were unable to lift the Premier League trophy this season is down to injuries. Throughout the literal entirety of this campaign, the Gunners were forced to constantly deal with fitness-related absences. Right from the get-go, after a summer in which multiple players featured in international tournaments and faced reduced preseasons (if they existed at all), key players have struggled to stay healthy. Jurrien Timber, still coming off a season missed due to an ACL tear, and Calafiori, whose first season in north London has been riddled with injuries, were often unavailable to start the campaign. Declan Rice, who played every possible minute of the Euros, played through a broken toe at one point and didn’t really look like himself fitness-wise until a couple months into the season. Takehiro Tomiyasu played six minutes against Southampton in a return from a long-term knee injury, and has not featured since. Mikel Merino arrived from Real Sociedad following the Euros and immediately suffered a shoulder fracture that kept him out for a month; those two occurrences kept the Spaniard from reaching full fitness until midway through the campaign.

During the first international break, Martin Odegaard suffered a serious ankle injury on duty with Norway. During a Nations League match against Austria, Christoph Baumgartner delivered a reckless tackle on the Arsenal captain, forcing him to limp off and resulting in ligament damage. The injury would ultimately keep Odegaard out for about two months, but even months after his return he hasn’t looked quite right. It could very well be the case that the Norwegian has had to play through residual effects of the initial wound and that has hampered him on the pitch.

Ben White, who has been ever-present with the Gunners since he joined the club, also missed extended time through injury. The issue required surgery on his knee in November, with a recovery process that sidelined the Englishman for three months. And even after White returned, he has suffered a few setbacks that have kept him out of recent matches. Without the 27-year-old, Arsenal’s right flank has lacked chemistry offensively, although Timber has contributed pretty decently in the final third.

Things got even worse when at the end of December, Saka went down with a hamstring tear. The initial issue occurred in a Nations League match against Greece, when interim England manager Lee Carsley. Arsenal and Saka tried to manage the injury, but ultimately it was exacerbated. The Arsenal talisman required surgery on his hamstring and was unavailable for about three months. Losing the team’s best player for a third of the season was probably the nail in the coffin for the Gunners’ title challenge, just as losing Mohamed Salah for three months probably would have been for Liverpool.

Jesus, who was next up in the depth chart behind Saka at right wing, tore his ACL in an FA Cup match against Manchester United in January. The Brazilian, who was just rounding into a vein of good form, became set to miss the remainder of the season. Jesus’ recovery might extend into next season given when it occurred and, now having suffered ACL injuries in both knees, might impact the player we see when he returns.

Shortly after the January transfer window closed, Havertz went down with a hamstring tear during Arsenal’s warm weather training trip to Dubai. The German had been serving as the Gunners’ starting — and after Jesus’ injury, only — striker, but had shown clear signs of exhaustion in the weeks leading up to the season-ending issue. Unfortunately, other injuries to the forward line forced him to bear the burden on his own. Should Arsenal reach the Champions League final, there appears to be an outside chance that Havertz can be available for the occasion.

The last significant injury I’ll mention is Gabriel’s. The center back pulled up early on against Fulham, despite effectively having had a week’s rest after returning early from international duty due to suspension. But the Brazilian’s hamstring gave out, also sidelining him for the remainder of the campaign. His partnership with Saliba, perhaps the best in Europe, has been interrupted until next season.

Due to all these extended absences of key players throughout the season, Arsenal have been robbed of quality by misfortune. They have had to make do without some of their biggest contributors while attempting to compete on multiple fronts. And the clusters these injuries have occurred in have proven detrimental at times. With White and Tomiyasu out for much of the season, Thomas Partey had to regularly fill in at right back while Saliba has been forced to play almost every minute of the season. Arteta was forced to convert Merino into a makeshift center forward (albeit, to great effect) with both of his usual strikers done for the season. With Saka, Jesus, and Martinelli all simultaneously out in February, we saw Kieran Tierney deployed at left wing occasionally.

The fact is, it is damn near impossible to win titles under those circumstances. Sure, the manager has made mistakes. It’s undeniable that a few players have absolutely not been good enough this season. But when two players who had combined for 42 goals and assists by the beginning of February are unavailable for several months, that makes a difference. When you have to start a teenage attacking midfielder on the wing or a 31-year-old six as a full back, there is an impact. And in today’s era of elite football, the margin for error is so small that such a discrepancy can be decisive.

I do think that ultimately, Liverpool were better than Arsenal in the league. As things currently stand, they could finish with 94 points; it’s hard to say a side that achieves that tally doesn’t deserve a title. The problem is, I also think that Arsenal were prevented by circumstance from showing how good they were. It’s a bit brash to say that the Gunners certainly would have beaten Liverpool to the title if they’d had better injury luck. But I think it definitely would have been a much closer race. Instead of a guard of honor being the biggest talking point from Arsenal’s upcoming trip to Anfield, I’d reckon that it would still be viewed as something of a title decider.

In any event, Arsenal have remained in second when most teams (including Liverpool, as we’ve seen previously) probably would have relinquished a Champions League place altogether in similar circumstances. They are three matches from celebrating their first-ever triumph in that competition while deploying Jakub Kiwior in place of their best defender, an 18-year-old midfielder at left back, and a two-way eight at center forward. They are managed by one of the best coaches in the world, a footballing genius who has adapted to catastrophes with relish. And they sport a roster that just needs a couple more attacking pieces to become a true force of nature. The luck will even out, even if the quality of officiating in England doesn’t. And at that point, anything is possible.

If you enjoyed this post, please consider following me on Twitter @Shamsdale or on Bluesky @shamsdale.bsky.social. You can also listen to me on “Not That Kind Of Gooner: An Arsenal Podcast”, which you can follow on Twitter at @NotThatGooner and on Bluesky @notthatgooner.bsky.social.