This Isn’t a Normal Transfer Window

And going from one of the best teams in the world to THE best is quite hard at the best of times.

I used to love transfer season. The possibilities, the new faces, the drama, the sagas, the swoops and hijacks and fumbles… it was all so exciting. For four months every year, I and the rest of the world were treated to the greatest reality show that football had to offer outside of what actually occurred on the pitch.

One of the best parts was and still is the transfer bomba. Nothing hits like a proper bombshell out of the blue, that I know has remained true all this time. But back in the day, that phenomenon existed in its purest form; you wouldn’t hear anything for days, weeks even, and then suddenly BOOM, a reliable reporter would reveal that your team has completed the acquisition of a player you thought wasn’t anywhere near their radar. The collective dopamine experienced on that fateful when Arsène Wenger entered the room for a press conference with Sol Campbell in tow, the pair smiling because this dramatic unveiling had been a legitimate secret, was of an astronomical level. The sheer joy produced by the deadline day announcement of Arsenal’s acquisition of Mesut Özil could have powered every car in north London for a month if harnessed.

Most of that magic has evaporated from the experience now. Every hour there is some micro-update from one of a thousand different journalists. In the current digital era, football fandom lives on social media, an interactive forum that rewards outrage and insists upon engagement. Therefore, regardless of the veracity of these reports, they each demand a reaction and the masses oblige. Countless times a day fans express annoyance or despair because nothing has changed in the relative blink of an eye since the last brief or worse, because they were told something that didn’t even happen.

What results is a constant cycle of negativity for the entirety of the off-season. Wave after wave of vocal disappointment at players linked to the club by random journalists, of decrying Andrea Berta’s inability to sell the Gunners’ deadwood, of announcing needless reminders of the current date and what remains on the to-do list, of threatening indefinite apathy if the wrong player is sold, permeates our psyches. The incessant barrage of takes is grating.

And yet, we can’t turn away; that all too powerful FOMO commands we stay glued to our screens throughout. Thus, our emotional investment in the transfer window turns into mental self-flagellation. We sort through each other’s snarky retorts and livid outbursts to gather what little crumbs of information we can. Because we need to know what’s going on, or at least build a story in our heads, so that we can function in the other areas of our lives.

Every summer, we repeat this same prolonged ritual. We hastily manufacture storylines in our head to piece together the few things we do know, which rarely reflect all the sides of a given situation, and treat that as the truth instead of as a knee-jerk hypothesis. We pursue narratives, aiming more to justify disliking a character or party from the outset instead than to understand what we are seeing. We project doom simply because the club don’t do what we think we would have.

Rinse and repeat. The lessons there to be learned rarely are by most.

I must stress that I don’t say this from a high horse. I’m human, after all. I doomscroll and message people asking what they’ve heard, trying to scratch that itch for signings just like everyone else. I too react to updates from journalists who are probably wrong and fire some jokes off on the timeline. And sometimes I need to rant for a few minutes about what I think is going on (I just try to do this offline with people who I trust). It’s all part of transfer season.

But I try really hard these days to think critically about how an Arsenal transfer window appears to my eye and to respond in a more considered way than I used to. To me, it’s increasingly important to remember the context in which every move, every report of interest, and every quote materializes. Very little occurs within a vacuum during these windows. And that’s at the most mundane of times.

This is not one of those times. This is an extremely irregular summer window. We all just finished spectating the longest iteration of the World Cup in the tournament’s history; a record 48 teams competed this time around, stretching its duration to five weeks. While there have been some exceptions, most players just won’t entertain discussions regarding transfers while competing with their national teams or on their subsequent holidays. For any club trying to sign or sell a player who made it particularly far into the tournament (as has been the case repeatedly with Arsenal this summer), it was virtually guaranteed that the matter would not be resolved until August.

Additionally, the market has absolutely cratered in terms of value. Two of the examples to what I mentioned above were the signings of Elliot Anderson and Morgan Rogers by Manchester City and Chelsea respectively. A dastardly duo of almost limitlessly rich clubs with extensive histories of alleged financial impropriety broke the English transfer record twice to acquire these players — City paid £116 million for Anderson while Chelsea cutely stumped up £117 million to acquire Rogers.

Both are excellent players I would have gladly taken at Arsenal. But the prices these footballers have gone for are frankly ludicrous. And many people in the sport seem to agree, because those transfers have effectively reset valuations. In the days following Anderson’s switch to last season’s runners-up, Spurs sealed the signing of Sandro Tonali for approximately £100 million. Real Madrid recently acquired Yan Diomandé for a package approaching £120 million, with RB Leipzig commanding a king’s ransom for a winger with 46 total senior appearances in his career. Paris Saint-Germain have demanded upwards of £130 million for Bradley Barcola, reportedly prompting the Frenchman’s strongest suitors in Liverpool to assess their options.

This is the market Arsenal are operating in as they seek to improve their squad. And although it does not bearing repeating, they are now reigning Premier League champions and the most recent Champions League finalists. Mikel Arteta’s men are among the best sides in club football. Only the best players in their respective positions will improve the Gunners, and those came at a premium to begin with.

And it’s not like there is a dearth of elite left wing talent to begin with. Vinicius Júnior was clearly the best option available, and he chose to extend with Real Madrid. Perhaps Diomandé could have been worth consideration, but he is raw and also at Real Madrid now. Barcola is probably the only remaining elite alternative and the value there is debatable. Outside of that you only have choices that are risky at best. Unless, of course, you hold the belief that good scouts should be able to discover galactico talents at the drop of a hat. That doesn’t mean those other players can’t also be great, but the chances are greater that the Gunners would have to pay over the odds for them just to ultimately find that they aren’t an upgrade over Gabriel Martinelli.

As a result, Arsenal have been repeatedly foiled by drastic valuations. They refused to pay nine figures for Rogers before Chelsea swooped. They reportedly carried interest in Barcola, but have so far been put off by that price tag. They also initially hoped to pursue Tonali, but did not feel paying £5 million less than they did for Declan Rice constituted value. Even negotiations for Ezri Konsa have threatened to become a saga with Aston Villa insisting on a £60 million expenditure for the 28-year-old defender.

So here we are now. Arsenal play Coventry in their Premier League opener less than a week from the time of writing, and they have only brought in Illan Meslier, Christos Tzolis, and Bruno Guimarães. Leandro Trossard and Christian Nørgaard are the only official departures.

Considering how imminently Arsenal’s title defense will begin, it’s underwhelming. William Saliba is set for an extended stay on the treatment table while Jurriën Timber has yet to return to action following his groin injury at the end of last season. It is painfully common knowledge at this point that the Gunners lack elite individual talent in the final third. But no right-sided defensive reinforcements have arrived and the only attacking signing the champions have acquired is from Club Brugge.

It’s not enough. Arsenal could certainly win the league once more with what they have, but anyone saying the current squad is enough to feel comfortable about the upcoming campaign isn’t acknowledging reality. More talent is required.

But I do want to emphasize that I am excited about the players already at the club. I think we can expect improved showings from the likes of Piero Hincapié, Eberechi Eze, and Martín Zubimendi. Additionally, the trio of Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, and Kai Havertz should cause an uptick in the Gunners’ attacking output by virtue of simply making it onto the pitch more often than they did last season. Guimarães looks a sure bet to also catalyze Arsenal’s offensive capabilities with his elite passing range and progressive mindset. This team is already better on paper than they were in May.

This delayed, ultra-extortionate market hasn’t just affected our club. Liverpool still haven’t truly replaced Mohamed Salah and look very light defensively, even if (or maybe especially because) they’ve loaned in Ronald Araújo after Ibrahima Konaté’s departure. Manchester United have made some shrewd value signings but also will roll out a questionable back line behind a midfield lacking running power, and reportedly find themselves financially constrained regarding any further acquisitions. City look set to lose Rodri to Barcelona and are scrambling to convince Chelsea to part with Enzo Fernández. Speaking of the Blues, Xabi Alonso’s squad is too bloated for a side that will essentially play once a week. And Spurs’ attack looks far less convincing than Arsenal’s ever did.

Everyone still has plenty of business to do in mid-August. Those with fewer items left on their to-do lists are the clubs who have been willing to overspend left and right. But for the most part, the clubs around Arsenal also need to get a move on in the final fortnight of the window.

As for the Gunners, the mandate is clear regarding acquisitions: bring in proper cover for Saliba who can also mitigate potential further injuries (particularly to Timber or Ben White) and sign a forward who takes the attack up a notch or two. But that isn’t all that should be on the agenda. Arsenal also need to make some sales. It is absolutely imperative that they finally do an adequate job of moving some players on.

This isn’t just about making room in the squad, either. Although that absolutely is part of the arithmetic here. Players such as Fábio Vieira, Reiss Nelson, and Gabriel Jesus have done their part and filled in during preseason as main role players have returned later from their holidays. But they’re certainly not getting minutes during the season — their careers lie elsewhere. I think the likes of Martinelli and Viktor Gyökeres could also be shifted as well.

However, these departures also need to bring in an acceptable return. Because not only will Arsenal likely be committing more funds in the transfer market this summer (in addition to Guimarães’ lucrative contract), but there will also be further significant expenditures after the window closes. On Friday, Arteta essentially confirmed that he intends to remain with the club, which means that a new deal for the manager including a pay bump will be enacted soon. Then there are the matters of extensions for Rice, Timber, and perhaps others as well, also featuring improved salaries).

These are massive increases in an already expensive wage bill. And at the end of the day, Arsenal are meant to run on a self-sustaining model. But, as detailed by in this analysis of the club’s finances by the Arsenal Supporters Trust, they risk running up huge losses. A year of record revenue surely helps, but to my eye the Gunners need to bank some revenue from outgoings to help balance the books. Let’s not forget, Arsenal are still in debt to Kroenke Sports and Entertainment.

You may read that and ask, why did they pursue Vinicius Júnior so intently (and so nearly successfully) then? If they had signed the Real Madrid man, the Gunners would have had to fork over a nine-figure transfer fee, as well a signing bonus and massive salary for the Brazilian. I think that case presented a generational opportunity, one that would have elevated Arsenal’s global brand and income even further to the point that the additional up-front investment would have been worth it to the club’s owners. I’ve already written in depth about how game-changing that signing could have been; it certainly seemed that the Kroenkes would have been willing in that situation to take on a little more pain for a lot more gain.

But outside of that, my impression is that there exists significant internal pressure to right the ship financially. Arsenal aren’t broke, and they aren’t at serious risk of violating financial regulations. I just think KSE are imposing discipline on a sports franchise they’ve invested a lot of money in. Barring truly special circumstances like a pandemic or the chance to sign a proper superstar, the Gunners won’t be allowed to keep borrowing from the owners. They have to make things work within their parameters.

What that ultimately means for the team is that if less exciting talents aren’t able to fetch suitable sums, difficult decisions will have to be made. Arsenal will have to sell players who actually command interest in the market. At this point in time, those players appear to be Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri. Perhaps Zubimendi is a candidate to depart as well.

It’s very possible, in fact likely considering Arteta’s recent sound bites on the matter, that one of the Hale End graduates leaves during this window. And it will be painful. Personally I’d love to keep them both and if I’m forced to choose, I think Lewis-Skelly has far more of a role to play for Arsenal than Nwaneri does. But if either of them leave the fans will grieve, catastrophize, and vilify the club for allowing it to happen.

And that’s their right. We’re football fans — we’re allowed to get emotional. But Arsenal aren’t. That’s what those suits in the C-suites are paid the big bucks to do, to make the hard choices and take the heat that comes with that territory.

In any event, it won’t be long now until we discover what the conclusion of the transfer window has in store. I suspect that the next two weeks and change will feature a storm of activity as clubs feel the deadline breathing down their necks. Buyers and sellers alike will soften their stances and reach compromises. The dam will break and business will get done.

For that reason, I remain optimistic that Arsenal will bring in the defender they need and a high-level attacker — maybe not a genuine world-beater, but someone who represents an upgrade on what the Gunners currently boast. I think at least most of the fringe players are sent off to the next chapters of their careers. And I suspect we’ll see a surprise departure that probably stings at least a bit.

But I’ll reserve my judgment for the end of the window. Because despite what an irregular summer this has turned out to be, the club have a golden opportunity ahead of them to build something dynastic. They have to seize it, no matter the difficulties. If Arsenal are unable to do so, if they are unable to capitalize on this winning window, then of course they deserve criticism for it.

However, I also believe that people need to throw out the usual timelines they judge these windows on. Arsenal aren’t in their current predicament because they dallied or because they’ve been less competent than their peers. They’re in it because of external factors like the World Cup and because they are sticking to their guns in a landscape of inflated valuations. Personally, I’ve always been quite certain that anyone bringing their key signings in before preseason was a pipe dream. For me, it’s just about getting everything in before the official deadline.

Let’s see what happens. Although I too have expectations of the English champions, I’m sympathetic to what a tall order Andrea Berta, Richard Garlick, and others have to contend with. So I’m going to keep doing my best to not overreact until the entire picture is revealed. I’m sure others will continue to prophesy disaster with every new tweet about interest or appreciation or every confirmation that a player they liked joined another club. That’s what makes transfer season what it is these days. And that’s why I can’t wait until it’s over and we can focus on the football again.

If you enjoyed this post, please consider following me on Twitter @Shamsdale or on Bluesky @shamsdale.bsky.social.

Or you can buy me a coffee here.